Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.187313 0.210555 0.235680 0.264877 0.297902 0.334129 0.376922
2025-11-16 0.144662 0.173961 0.207927 0.250289 0.301819 0.362611 0.439982
2025-11-23 0.114731 0.146481 0.185653 0.237703 0.305315 0.390529 0.506642
2025-11-30 0.097311 0.131304 0.175732 0.238358 0.324875 0.440930 0.609662
2025-12-07 0.079654 0.113000 0.158923 0.227249 0.327135 0.469066 0.688252
2025-12-14 0.067323 0.100046 0.147360 0.221398 0.335544 0.506805 0.786889
2025-12-21 0.057596 0.089349 0.137377 0.216154 0.343804 0.545384 0.893439
2025-12-28 0.051758 0.083630 0.133952 0.220285 0.367022 0.610465 1.053513
2026-01-04 0.045567 0.076432 0.127125 0.217781 0.378850 0.658646 1.193595
2026-01-11 0.040980 0.071215 0.122768 0.218685 0.396482 0.719292 1.366588
2026-01-18 0.037497 0.067393 0.120220 0.222301 0.419393 0.792811 1.576962
2026-01-25 0.032763 0.060690 0.111645 0.213531 0.417636 0.819606 1.700047
2026-02-01 0.028297 0.054010 0.102441 0.202633 0.410881 0.837254 1.811657
2026-02-08 0.025196 0.049530 0.096826 0.198026 0.416218 0.880601 1.987999
2026-02-15 0.022437 0.045361 0.091273 0.192730 0.419311 0.919885 2.163765
2026-02-22 0.020916 0.043505 0.090141 0.196643 0.443193 1.009130 2.476345
2026-03-01 0.018631 0.039751 0.084557 0.189946 0.441954 1.040792 2.654265
2026-03-08 0.016919 0.037010 0.080788 0.186803 0.448560 1.092289 2.894541
2026-03-15 0.015406 0.034514 0.077236 0.183633 0.454588 1.143466 3.145425
2026-03-22 0.014584 0.033480 0.076853 0.188021 0.480281 1.249267 3.572092
2026-03-29 0.013463 0.031607 0.074269 0.186557 0.490571 1.316346 3.902083
2026-04-05 0.012615 0.030281 0.072827 0.187804 0.508377 1.407312 4.325766
2026-04-12 0.011963 0.029355 0.072248 0.191241 0.532869 1.521838 4.851209